Debate: the heat is on

As the second round of presidential debates approaches, Bill de Blasio says he’s still in-it-to-win-it, but lackluster fund-raising totals, poor poll numbers, the kerfuffle over his absence during the West Side blackout and growing disdain from the city’s tabloids make his long odds even longer.

“He has no realistic chance of getting the Democratic nomination,” says veteran political strategist Hank Sheinkopf.

“No one sees him as presidential material,” says Democratic consultant George Arzt. “If he is still around come primary day, he’ll lose his home state of New York overwhelmingly.”

Still, the mayor, who performed better than expected in the first debate by interrupting the others and pushing his way into the conversation, will be on stage next week for CNN’s two nights of debates in Detroit on July 30 and 31.

He drew the second night, which includes former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and former Housing Secretary Julian Castro. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren headline the first night.

Although all eyes will be on Biden and Harris given their memorable clash at the first debate, de Blasio’s appearance in that lineup could be advantageous to him, Arzt says.

“He’s going to be aggressive and go after the frontrunners,” Arzt says. “I think he’ll go after Biden who, right now, is ahead of the pack.”

Sheinkopf agrees.

“I expect him to be aggressive in trying to get his message across,” Sheinkopf says. “He’s very good on stage. He is very good as a candidate; he knows how to push his way into the debate.”

Though most observers give him little chance of winning the nomination, de Blasio’s campaign staff insists he’s still in the hunt.

“The mayor had three goals when he got into the race: raise over 1 million dollars, have a strong debate performance and start staffing up,” campaign spokeswoman Jaclyn Rothenberg says. “He accomplished all three.” She did not address the poor polling numbers and fund-raising totals.

Optimism aside, he’s got a long uphill climb by any measure.

The latest polls show de Blasio at 0 to 2 percent. A Politico poll taken in early July, had de Blasio at 0. Joe Biden led with 32 percent, compared to 19 percent for Sanders, 14 percent for Warren and 13 percent for Harris. The rest are in single digits.

“He’s not well-known outside of New York and he won’t get his message out except for what he can do in the debates,” Arzt says.

Sheinkopf says the polling data will affect his ability to raise money going forward.

“As the poll numbers go, so goes the campaign contributions,” Sheinkopf says.

The money totals reflect that. De Blasio pulled in just $1.1 million nationwide in the quarter ending June 30 — and almost all of it came from New York. Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, IN, with a population of just over 102,000, led the second quarter national money race with $24.8 million, followed by Biden at $21.5 million, Warren at $19.1 million, Sanders at $18 million and Harris next with about $12 million.

De Blasio’s statewide money-raising efforts were just as lackluster. He raised $883,010 in New York, far behind Buttigieg, who raised $2.45 million in the state, followed by Booker who pulled in $2.3 million. Fellow New Yorker Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand outraised de Blasio statewide, pulling in $1.93 million in New York. Biden and Harris were each just below $1.8 million in their New York fund-raising efforts.

“On a national scale, you’re not going to be competitive unless you can raise a lot of money,” Arzt says. “$1 million doesn’t buy you much.”

Locally, he’s got even more problems. He was campaigning in Iowa on July 13, when the West Side blackout crippled street and subway traffic and caused chaos for several hours. Although he rushed back to the city, his absence drew the ire of the Daily News and his arch-nemesis, the New York Post.

On the Monday after the blackout, The Post began a front-page editorial with the headline: “DE BLASIO MUST GO.” The rest of the front page said: “As the lights went out in NYC, the mayor was a thousand miles away in Iowa. That moment captured his ego-driven failure of a mayoralty. Enough is enough.”

Not wanting a repeat, he cancelled his campaign appearances the following weekend to deal with a brutal heat wave bringing near 100-degree temperatures.

Arzt and Sheinkopf — neither of whom represent a Democratic hopeful — say they think de Blasio’s best hope from all this is to get a cabinet post if a Democrat is elected president in 2020.

“Look, anything is possible,” Sheinkopf says. “If the left collapses, he wants to be there to pick up the pieces. I just don’t see that happening.”