STATEN ISLAND FREE-FOR-ALL
For the first time in decades, Staten Island is about to have a new state senator. John Marchi, the venerable Republican legislator who has represented the bulk of Staten Island in Albany since 1957, announced that he would retire at the end of this year several weeks ago, citing health concerns. Upon the news, all hell broke loose in the back channels of Island politics.
The Republican majority of the state Senate currently holds a slim 35-27 lead over their Democratic rivals, and that number is shrinking every year. Since 2002, the Republicans have lost seats in Manhattan, The Bronx and Syracuse, and are hanging on by a thread in Westchester. The loss of four more seats by the GOP, and the prospect of a Democratic governor taking power next year, could signal the end of Republican influence in New York State. Joseph Bruno cannot allow that to happen. The state Senate majority leader is hell bent on insuring that he retires with that title, and will do whatever it takes to keep his slipping hold on power. That means money.
The Senate Republican Campaign Committee spent millions of dollars on losing candidates in 2004, putting serious wealth behind Stephen Kaufman and Al Curtis and their nearly impossible push to earn Republican wins in seats with serious Democratic majorities among voters. Marchi's seat also has a Democratic majority among voters, but that number is very slim. To hold on to their power, Republicans must keep Marchi's seat, but Democrats have their eye on it as well.
Leading the pack among potential Republican candidates is City Councilman James Oddo, currently that body's minority leader. Oddo is well-liked in his district, and has a higher Island-wide profile than his Republican council counterpart, Andrew Lanza. But Oddo has run afoul of the city's top Republican, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who figures to be a key ally and fundraiser for any Republican looking to take the seat. Bloomberg shook his friends' pockets for Kaufman in 2004 and is very loyal to those who are loyal to him. Oddo and Bloomberg have a less than stellar relationship. Though the mayor has made recent comments in support of Oddo, Bloomberg has held grudges against other council members for much longer than he has against Oddo. Lanza's relationship with Bloomberg is better, and he has a stronger relationship with Rep. Vito Fossella.
A third Republican often mentioned is attorney Robert Helbock, a Marchi staffer and the chair of the Island's Republican Committee. Though Helbock is rumored to be Marchi's top choice, he has no elected experience and is not well known outside of political circles. Expect Helbock, who is a hard worker and a good soldier in the Party, to eventually be rewarded with a judgeship, but a state senator he will not be. And though a primary between Oddo and Lanza has been discussed, a decision will likely be made behind closed doors. Needing to keep the seat, Republicans will not risk a potentially divisive primary election.
On the Democratic side, the first name everybody mentions as the most likely candidate is North Shore City Councilman Michael McMahon. The most popular elected Democrat on Staten Island, he'd be able to command serious endorsements and cash if he decided to run. But aside from family issues that would make a constant trip to Albany a serious headache, McMahon is said to covet the Staten Island borough presidency more than anything else. A loss in a high profile race, like state Senate or Congress, could make him damaged goods come 2009. Add in the factor that much of his council district is hooked into a predominantly Brooklyn state Senate seat, and a McMahon campaign is a likely non-starter.
With a lack of willing candidates, whatever does a party do? Maybe look to its past. Party leaders have begun to speak of potentially coaxing former city councilman and borough presidential candidate Jerome X. "Jay" O'Donovan out of retirement and into the race. Marchi was well respected on both sides of the aisle for his "man of conscience" attitude and real independence from party bosses and outside influences. Surely, Staten Islanders would love to pick someone in the same independent mold. Maybe someone over there should come up with a candidate.